The DfT’s approach and principles are:
2.1 The aim of the strategy is to decarbonise in a way which preserves the benefits of air travel and delivers clean growth of the UK sector by maximising opportunities or decarbonisation
2.2 Aviation expected to be one of the few residual emitting sectors in 2050 and are a global issue
2.3 Also huge opportunities: new technologies, companies and markets – Britain at the forefront of the green industrial revolution
2.4 Jet Zero will be underpinned by:
1) a clear goal, multiple solutions
2) international leadership
3) partnership
2.5 Many of the technologies we need are at an early stage of development: SAF, ZEA, Greenhouse Gas (GHG) removal
2.6 Focus for the coming decade will be to accelerate the development of all these technologies so by 2030 we have a clearer picture
2.7 We will commit to UK aviation sector reaching net zero by 2050, and consulting on UK domestic aviation to reach net zero by 2040
2.8 We propose to stay on track by setting a ‘high ambition’ CO2 emissions reduction trajectory for aviation from 2025 to 2050: ie 39Mt 2030, 31Mt 2040, 21Mt 2050 (residual emissions in 2050 offset by GHG removal)
2.9 Based on net CO2 accounting for offsetting and removals: 23-32Mt 2030, 12-19Mt 2040, 0Mt 2050 (O&R 7-16 2030, 12-19 2040, 21 2050)
2.10 Review approach every 5 years and adapt as needed, and update on international emissions in 2025 reflecting any policy changes
2.11 Jet Zero focuses on CO2 but will continue to increase understanding of non-CO2 impacts on environment
Various pathways are shown – all the options are High Ambition and the one chosen is the least high
Current trends shows 5Mt savings from carbon pricing, 14Mt savings from fuel efficiency, 2Mt savings from SAF
High ambition pathway shows 5Mt from carbon pricing, 21Mt from fuel efficiency, 2Mt from ZEA, 8Mt from SAF
High ambition with an SAF breakthrough: 5Mt from carbon pricing, 21Mt from fuel efficiency, 2Mt from ZEA, 20Mt from SAF
High ambition with a ZEA breakthrough: 5Mt carbon from pricing, 21Mt from fuel efficiency, 7Mt from ZEA, 7Mt from SAF
LADACAN comments:
The government is not approaching this with an open mind, since it wants to allow aviation to grow while becoming cleaner but has no evidenced way to achieve this: key parts of the solution still need to be developed.
Two possible breakthroughs are explored: one in sustainable aviation fuel, over which there are big questions of cost and scalability; another in zero emissions aviation which is at present technologically unfeasible at scale.
Betting the future of the planet on being able to continue with life as usual (the cause of the current crisis) and hope for some magic wands to wave in 2030 or 2040 seems foolhardy and irresponsible.
Consultation questions:
1. Do you agree or disagree that UK domestic aviation should be net zero by 2040? How do you propose this could be implemented?
2. Do you agree or disagree with the range of illustrative scenarios that we have set out as possible trajectories to net zero in 2050? Are there any alternative evidence-based scenarios we should be considering?
3. Do you agree or disagree that we should set a CO2 emissions reduction trajectory to 2050?
a. Should the trajectory be set on an in‑sector CO2 emissions basis (without offsets and removals) or a net CO2 emissions basis (including offsets and removals)?
b. Do you agree or disagree with the possible trajectories we have set out, based on our high ambition scenario, which have in-sector CO2 emissions of 39 Mt in 2030, and 31 Mt in 2040 and 21 Mt in 2050, or net CO2 emissions of 23-32 Mt in 2030, 12‑19 Mt in 2040 and 0 Mt in 2050?
4. Do you agree or disagree that we should review progress every five years and adapt our strategy in response to progress?
Next page: International leadership